TSG Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyonnais: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim · updated 2026-10-09
TSG Hoffenheim host Olympique Lyonnais in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at PreZero Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Olympique Lyonnais favourites at 54%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: TSG Hoffenheim 1.27, Olympique Lyonnais 2.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah, 22 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Ernest Nuamah as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 77, defensive 44).
- Expected goals: 0.66 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of wingers
- Shots: 4.10 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.59 per 90 minutes, better than 81% of wingers
TSG Hoffenheim concede 2.5 goals a match this season (1.66 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a inside forward like Ernest Nuamah.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Press-resistant.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| TSG Hoffenheim | Per match this season | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 0.4 |
| 1.83 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.0 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 52.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; TSG Hoffenheim in its domestic league; Olympique Lyonnais in its domestic league.
Players to watch
TSG Hoffenheim
- Ozan Kabak defender · rating 7.21 · 4 apps
- Adam Daghim midfielder · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
- Adam Hlozek forward · rating 7.08 · 4 apps
Olympique Lyonnais
- Ernest Nuamah midfielder · rating 7.71 · 4 apps
- Corentin Tolisso midfielder · rating 7.52 · 5 apps
- Zachary Christopher Athekame defender · rating 7.35 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.