Udinese vs Fiorentina Prediction and Stats | Serie A Gameweek 13
Serie A · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Dacia Arena, Udine · updated 2026-11-15
Udinese welcome Fiorentina to Dacia Arena in Udine in Serie A Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
Udinese have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 9% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. Fiorentina have played 11 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 18% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fiorentina are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 24% and Udinese at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Udinese 1.59, Fiorentina 1.83.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Udinese: form and key numbers
In style Udinese cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.11 a match created, 1.88 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.2).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina are happy without the ball, take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.63 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 16.9 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 45.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 82% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Udinese vs Fiorentina: season averages side by side
| Udinese | Per match this season | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.88 | xG conceded | 1.63 |
| 14.6 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 4.5 | On target | 5.1 |
| 50.5 | Possession % | 45.2 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 64% | Both teams scored % | 82% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Udinese
- Nicolò Zaniolo SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 56 · Chance creator, Creator (top 4% of his position)
- Matteo Palma CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Duel winner, Hard to dribble past (top 3% of his position)
Fiorentina
- Alieu Njie WMF · Direct wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 60 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 6% of his position)
- Nicolò Fagioli CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 56 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono, 19 · Fiorentina · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 61
Franco Mastantuono, 19, plays as a winger for Fiorentina in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 61
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 55
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 37
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.50 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.39 / 90 | 92% |
| Fouls won | 2.35 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.15 / 90 | 79% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.25 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls.
- What Franco Mastantuono is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Franco Mastantuono's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Udinese vs Fiorentina prediction
Udinese should have more of the ball, with Fiorentina likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Udinese work the ball wide and cross; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.59 for Udinese and 1.83 for Fiorentina - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Fiorentina have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Udinese 1-2 Fiorentina
Udinese vs Fiorentina: what the numbers say
- 1. Fiorentina unbeaten (win or draw) 67% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 66% by the model, 3.42 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Lecce Saturday 21 November 2026
- Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026
- Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026
- Napoli vs Torino Saturday 21 November 2026
- Juventus vs Venezia Sunday 22 November 2026
- Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026
- Bologna vs Udinese Sunday 22 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026
Udinese vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
When is Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Udinese vs Fiorentina is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 11:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 13.
Where is Udinese vs Fiorentina played?
At Dacia Arena, Udine, Udinese's home ground.
Who will win Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Fiorentina are the favourites: Udinese 33%, draw 24%, Fiorentina 43%. Our prediction is Udinese 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who is the player to watch in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Franco Mastantuono of Fiorentina: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.