Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk Prediction and Betting Tips | Belgian Pro League Gameweek 11
Belgian Pro League · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels · updated 2026-10-25
Union Saint-Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Union Saint-Gilloise have played 8 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate. Genk have played 9 matches in Belgian Pro League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Union Saint-Gilloise are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 22% and Genk at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Union Saint-Gilloise 2.12, Genk 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Union Saint-Gilloise: form and key numbers
In style Union Saint-Gilloise press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.04 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.7).
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Genk: form and key numbers
In style Genk keep the ball, are strong in the air, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.10 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk: season averages side by side
| Union Saint-Gilloise | Per match this season | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 9 |
| 2.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.10 |
| 1.19 | xG conceded | 1.27 |
| 17.3 | Shots | 14.9 |
| 7.4 | On target | 5.2 |
| 51.8 | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 63% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 38% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 7.08 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Players to watch
Union Saint-Gilloise
- Adem Zorgane CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Massiré Sylla CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Genk
- Noah Adedeji-Sternberg LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 57 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 9% of his position)
- Jeppe Erenbjerg AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 52 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Rafiu Durosinmi
Rafiu Durosinmi, 23 · Genk · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 66
Rafiu Durosinmi, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Genk in the Belgian Pro League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 66
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 5.03 / 90 | 95% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.22 xG/shot | 94% |
| Duels won | 7.54 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 1.59 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected goals | 0.65 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner.
- What Rafiu Durosinmi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Rafiu Durosinmi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk prediction
Genk should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.12 for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.20 for Genk - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 62%. Union Saint-Gilloise have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Genk
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk betting tips
- Tip 1: Union Saint-Gilloise to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.32 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Belgian Pro League previews
- Club Brugge vs Sint-Truiden Sunday 25 October 2026
- Gent vs Anderlecht Sunday 25 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Sunday 25 October 2026
- Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge Friday 30 October 2026
- Mechelen vs Genk Saturday 31 October 2026
- Standard Liège vs KV Kortrijk Saturday 31 October 2026
- SK Beveren vs Union Saint-Gilloise Saturday 31 October 2026
- Anderlecht vs Westerlo Saturday 31 October 2026
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk: questions and answers
When is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?
Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Belgian Pro League Gameweek 11.
Where is Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk played?
At Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels, Union Saint-Gilloise's home ground.
Who will win Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?
Union Saint-Gilloise are the favourites: Union Saint-Gilloise 58%, draw 22%, Genk 20%. Our prediction is Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Genk.
Who is the player to watch in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?
Rafiu Durosinmi of Genk: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.