Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Merkur Spiel-Arena, Düsseldorf · updated 2026-10-09
Union Saint-Gilloise host Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Merkur Spiel-Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Union Saint-Gilloise slight favourites at 41%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Union Saint-Gilloise 1.69, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 1.56.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Union Saint-Gilloise | Per match this season | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 3.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.51 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 9.7 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.2 |
| 39.5 | Possession % | 50.2 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 4.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.48 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Union Saint-Gilloise in its domestic league; Hapoel Be'er Sheva in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Union Saint-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad Thursday 15 October 2026
- Torreense vs Sunderland Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznań vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Olympique Lyonnais vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.