Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Doosan Aréna, Plzeň · updated 2026-10-09
Viktoria Plzeň host Levski Sofia in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Doosan Aréna. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Viktoria Plzeň slight favourites at 42%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 28% and expects about 2.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Viktoria Plzeň 1.43, Levski Sofia 1.18.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Season statistics
| Viktoria Plzeň | Per match this season | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 2.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.31 |
| 20.3 | Shots | 10.8 |
| 7.3 | On target | 3.4 |
| 51.3 | Possession % | 53.1 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 63% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.63 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Levski Sofia in its domestic league.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.