Villarreal vs Espanyol Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Friday 30 October 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · updated 2026-10-16
Villarreal welcome Espanyol to Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Villarreal have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Espanyol have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Villarreal are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 25% and Espanyol at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Villarreal 1.72, Espanyol 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Espanyol: form and key numbers
In style Espanyol are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.41 a match created, 1.17 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 48.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.1 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Villarreal vs Espanyol: season averages side by side
| Villarreal | Per match this season | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.41 |
| 1.31 | xG conceded | 1.17 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 6.3 | On target | 3.9 |
| 60.9 | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 2.1 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 3.3 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Blocks shots, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Alex Freeman RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Espanyol
- Roberto Fernández CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64 · Takes high-quality shots, Clinical finisher (top 5% of his position)
- Edu Expósito CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 63 · Dribbler, Creator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 70
Alberto Moleiro, 23, plays as a winger for Villarreal in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and key passes. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 70
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 66
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 98% |
| Key passes | 3.44 / 90 | 98% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.63 / 90 | 94% |
| Big chances created | 0.72 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.30 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Crosser.
- What Alberto Moleiro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alberto Moleiro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Villarreal vs Espanyol prediction
Villarreal should have more of the ball, with Espanyol likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Villarreal like to take players on; Espanyol are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.72 for Villarreal and 1.27 for Espanyol - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 60%. Villarreal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Villarreal 2-1 Espanyol
Villarreal vs Espanyol betting tips
- Tip 1: Villarreal win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Saturday 24 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
- Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Sunday 25 October 2026
Villarreal vs Espanyol: questions and answers
When is Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Villarreal vs Espanyol is on Friday 30 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Villarreal vs Espanyol played?
At Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Villarreal's home ground.
Who will win Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Villarreal are the favourites: Villarreal 47%, draw 25%, Espanyol 28%. Our prediction is Villarreal 2-1 Espanyol.
Who is the player to watch in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.