Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · updated 2026-10-20
Villarreal welcome Paris Saint Germain to Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Villarreal have played 9 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Paris Saint Germain have played 7 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Villarreal 38%, the draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Villarreal 1.61, Paris Saint Germain 1.58.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Villarreal: form and key numbers
In style Villarreal keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.11 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.0).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.50 a match created, 1.21 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 20.9 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 68.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: season averages side by side
| Villarreal | Per match this season | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 2.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.50 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.21 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 20.9 |
| 6.3 | On target | 7.3 |
| 60.6 | Possession % | 68.0 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 86% |
| 7.1 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 7.02 |
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Alberto Moleiro LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 73 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
- Alex Freeman RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Ball circulator, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Creator, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 66 · Chance creator, High shot volume (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 74
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 74
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 72
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.06 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.62 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.29 / 90 | 89% |
| Key passes | 2.53 / 90 | 83% |
| Fouls won | 2.53 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.61 for Villarreal and 1.58 for Paris Saint Germain - with over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 64%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Villarreal 1-1 Paris Saint Germain
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 3.19 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: questions and answers
When is Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain is on Tuesday 3 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain played?
At Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal, Villarreal's home ground.
Who will win Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
It is close: Villarreal 38%, draw 25%, Paris Saint Germain 37%. Our prediction is Villarreal 1-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who is the player to watch in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.