AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-10-14
AC Milan welcome Bologna to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
AC Milan have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bologna have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AC Milan are narrow favourites at 49%, with the draw at 28% and Bologna at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AC Milan 1.47, Bologna 0.92.
- Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Bologna: form and key numbers
In style Bologna cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.42 a match created, 0.96 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
AC Milan vs Bologna: season averages side by side
| AC Milan | Per match this season | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 |
| 1.12 | xG conceded | 0.96 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.5 |
| 60.3 | Possession % | 50.7 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.2 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
- Pervis Estupiñán LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
Bologna
- Eivind Helland CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Ball-winner (top 12% of his position)
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi, 32 · Bologna · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62
Federico Bernardeschi, 32, plays as a winger for Bologna in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and big chances created. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 62
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 58
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Competent, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.69 / 90 | 90% |
| Big chances created | 0.72 / 90 | 90% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 2.90 / 90 | 73% |
| Key passes | 1.69 / 90 | 53% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Crosser, Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Federico Bernardeschi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Federico Bernardeschi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AC Milan vs Bologna prediction
AC Milan should have more of the ball, with Bologna likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.47 for AC Milan and 0.92 for Bologna - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 47%. AC Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AC Milan 1-0 Bologna
AC Milan vs Bologna betting tips
- Tip 1: AC Milan win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.39 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
AC Milan vs Bologna: questions and answers
When is AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan vs Bologna is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is AC Milan vs Bologna played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, AC Milan's home ground.
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan are the favourites: AC Milan 49%, draw 28%, Bologna 23%. Our prediction is AC Milan 1-0 Bologna.
Who is the player to watch in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Federico Bernardeschi of Bologna: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.