Napoli vs Roma Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Saturday 24 October 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · updated 2026-10-10
Napoli welcome Roma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Napoli have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Roma have played 5 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 24% and Napoli at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Napoli 1.21, Roma 1.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Napoli: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.59 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.55 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 20.6 a match, 7.0 on target.
- Possession: 57.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.16.
Napoli vs Roma: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match this season | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.55 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 20.6 |
| 4.2 | On target | 7.0 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 57.6 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.82 | Average rating | 7.16 |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 68 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 16% of his position)
Roma
- Wesley RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 76
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 76
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.26 / 90 | 98% |
| Goals | 1.57 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots | 5.22 / 90 | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.24 xG/shot | 93% |
| Key passes | 1.83 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Roma prediction
Roma should have more of the ball; Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.21 for Napoli and 1.90 for Roma - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 60%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Napoli 1-2 Roma
Napoli vs Roma betting tips
- Tip 1: Roma win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.10 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Napoli vs Frosinone Saturday 10 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Juventus Sunday 11 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Venezia Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Udinese Monday 12 October 2026
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
Napoli vs Roma: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Roma?
Napoli vs Roma is on Saturday 24 October 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Napoli vs Roma played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Roma?
Roma are the favourites: Napoli 24%, draw 24%, Roma 53%. Our prediction is Napoli 1-2 Roma.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Roma?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Roma?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.