AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
AC Milan welcome Bologna to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
AC Milan have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 63% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Bologna have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AC Milan are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 24% and Bologna at 18%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AC Milan -0.75 at 1.83, Bologna at 2.08. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Bologna: form and key numbers
In style Bologna cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.13 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
AC Milan vs Bologna: season averages side by side
| AC Milan | Per match | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 1.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.13 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 13.1 | Shots | 12.1 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 63.9 | Pressure share % | 42.5 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 16.6 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
AC Milan vs Bologna: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- AC Milan have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: AC Milan 8, Bologna 3 - 2.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Bologna 0-3 AC Milan (February 3rd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings AC Milan won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | Bologna | 0 – 3 | AC Milan |
| 14 Sep 2025 | AC Milan | 1 – 0 | Bologna |
| 9 May 2025 | AC Milan | 3 – 1 | Bologna |
| 27 Feb 2025 | Bologna | 2 – 1 | AC Milan |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Christian Pulisic RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Bologna
- Eivind Helland CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 10% of his position)
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 61 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Federico Bernardeschi
Federico Bernardeschi, 32 · Bologna · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64
Federico Bernardeschi, 32, plays as a winger for Bologna in Serie A. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and big chances created. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 57
- LW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.14 / 90 | 82% |
| Big chances created | 0.49 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots | 2.94 / 90 | 78% |
| Expected goals | 0.30 / 90 | 76% |
| Fouls won | 1.80 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Crosser, Big-chance creator.
- What Federico Bernardeschi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Federico Bernardeschi's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AC Milan vs Bologna prediction
AC Milan should have more of the ball, with Bologna likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.68 for AC Milan and 0.89 for Bologna - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 49%. AC Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AC Milan 2-1 Bologna
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AC Milan vs Bologna betting tips
- Tip 1: AC Milan to win 57% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 53% by the model, 2.57 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Lecce vs Juventus Monday 26 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Monday 26 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AS Roma vs Cagliari Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma Calcio vs Udinese Thursday 29 October 2026
AC Milan vs Bologna: questions and answers
When is AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan vs Bologna is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is AC Milan vs Bologna played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, AC Milan's home ground.
Who will win AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan are the favourites: AC Milan 57%, draw 24%, Bologna 18%. Our prediction is AC Milan 2-1 Bologna.
Who is the player to watch in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Federico Bernardeschi of Bologna: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.