Sassuolo vs Lazio Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Sassuolo welcome Lazio to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia in Serie A action on Wednesday 28 October 2026.
Sassuolo have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Lazio have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 88% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 57% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Sassuolo 31%, the draw 28%, Lazio 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sassuolo 0 at 2.42, Lazio at 1.60. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Sassuolo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 88% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Lazio: form and key numbers
In style Lazio press high.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 50.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: season averages side by side
| Sassuolo | Per match | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 1.58 | xG conceded | 1.31 |
| 1.50 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 14.6 | Shots | 13.9 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 42.7 | Pressure share % | 55.6 |
| 15.9 | Tackles | 13.5 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Sassuolo have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Sassuolo 2, Lazio 2 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lazio 2-1 Sassuolo (March 9th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Sassuolo won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2026 | Lazio | 2 – 1 | Sassuolo |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Sassuolo | 1 – 0 | Lazio |
Players to watch
Sassuolo
- Armand Laurienté LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64 · High shot volume, Big-chance creator (top 10% of his position)
- Vasilije Adžić AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 13% of his position)
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 73 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 23% of his position)
- Nuno Tavares LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 17% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mattia Zaccagni
Mattia Zaccagni, 31 · Lazio · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 70
Mattia Zaccagni, 31, plays as a winger for Lazio in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and big chances created. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.30 / 90 | 88% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 2.31 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected goals | 0.31 / 90 | 79% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.03 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, Big-chance creator, Chance creator.
- What Mattia Zaccagni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mattia Zaccagni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball; Lazio press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.27 for Sassuolo and 1.69 for Lazio - with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sassuolo 1-1 Lazio
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sassuolo vs Lazio betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 57% by the model, 2.95 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
More Serie A previews
- Lecce vs Juventus Monday 26 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Monday 26 October 2026
- AS Roma vs Cagliari Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Thursday 29 October 2026
- Parma Calcio vs Udinese Thursday 29 October 2026
Sassuolo vs Lazio: questions and answers
When is Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Sassuolo vs Lazio is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is Sassuolo vs Lazio played?
At MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia, Sassuolo's home ground.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
It is close: Sassuolo 31%, draw 28%, Lazio 41%. Our prediction is Sassuolo 1-1 Lazio.
Who is the player to watch in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Mattia Zaccagni of Lazio: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.