AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Wednesday 28 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
AS Roma welcome Cagliari to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A action on Wednesday 28 October 2026.
AS Roma have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 63% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate. Cagliari have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AS Roma are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 19% and Cagliari at 13%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AS Roma -1.25 at 1.74, Cagliari at 2.19. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.84, under 2.04, which gives over 53%.
AS Roma: form and key numbers
In style AS Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.13 a match created, 1.21 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 18.9 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.07.
Cagliari: form and key numbers
In style Cagliari are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 9.8 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 42.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: season averages side by side
| AS Roma | Per match | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.21 | xG conceded | 1.69 |
| 2.38 | Goals | 0.75 |
| 18.9 | Shots | 9.8 |
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 61.3 | Pressure share % | 37.3 |
| 18.1 | Tackles | 15.9 |
| 11.9 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
AS Roma vs Cagliari: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- AS Roma have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: AS Roma 3, Cagliari 1 - 1.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari (February 9th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings AS Roma won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2026 | AS Roma | 2 – 0 | Cagliari |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Cagliari | 1 – 0 | AS Roma |
| 16 Mar 2025 | AS Roma | 1 – 0 | Cagliari |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Cagliari | 0 – 0 | AS Roma |
Players to watch
AS Roma
- Paulo Dybala SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 74 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Donyell Malen CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 71 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 3% of his position)
Cagliari
- Elia Caprile GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 79 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 14% of his position)
- Juan Rodríguez CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé, 23 · Roma · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 76
Matías Soulé, 23, plays as a winger for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and accurate crosses. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 76
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 69
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 61
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.94 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.43 / 90 | 90% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.86 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.32 / 90 | 78% |
| Key passes | 2.15 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Crosser, Dribbler.
- What Matías Soulé is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Matías Soulé's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction
AS Roma should have more of the ball, with Cagliari likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; AS Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 2.11 for AS Roma and 0.75 for Cagliari - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 47%. AS Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: AS Roma 2-1 Cagliari
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AS Roma vs Cagliari betting tips
- Tip 1: AS Roma to win 69% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.86 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
More Serie A previews
- Lecce vs Juventus Monday 26 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Monday 26 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Thursday 29 October 2026
- Parma Calcio vs Udinese Thursday 29 October 2026
AS Roma vs Cagliari: questions and answers
When is AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma vs Cagliari is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, in Serie A.
Where is AS Roma vs Cagliari played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, AS Roma's home ground.
Who will win AS Roma vs Cagliari?
AS Roma are the favourites: AS Roma 69%, draw 19%, Cagliari 13%. Our prediction is AS Roma 2-1 Cagliari.
Who is the player to watch in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Matías Soulé of Roma: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Cagliari?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.