AC Milan vs Inter Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 10
Serie A · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · updated 2026-10-17
AC Milan welcome Inter to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
AC Milan have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Inter have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 20% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: AC Milan 35%, the draw 24%, Inter 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AC Milan 1.58, Inter 1.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Inter: form and key numbers
In style Inter keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.80 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 22.5 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 62.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
AC Milan vs Inter: season averages side by side
| AC Milan | Per match this season | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.80 |
| 1.12 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 22.5 |
| 4.5 | On target | 7.2 |
| 60.3 | Possession % | 62.3 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.2 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 7.09 |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
- Pervis Estupiñán LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
Inter
- Manuel Akanji CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 9% of his position)
- Lautaro Martínez CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 68 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram, 29 · Inter · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 74
Marcus Thuram, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.28 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.87 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.86 / 90 | 85% |
| Goals | 0.93 / 90 | 82% |
| Duels won | 6.52 / 90 | 79% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator.
- What Marcus Thuram is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Thuram's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AC Milan vs Inter prediction
Inter should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.58 for AC Milan and 1.69 for Inter - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Inter
AC Milan vs Inter betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
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- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
AC Milan vs Inter: questions and answers
When is AC Milan vs Inter?
AC Milan vs Inter is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 10.
Where is AC Milan vs Inter played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, AC Milan's home ground.
Who will win AC Milan vs Inter?
It is close: AC Milan 35%, draw 24%, Inter 40%. Our prediction is AC Milan 1-1 Inter.
Who is the player to watch in AC Milan vs Inter?
Marcus Thuram of Inter: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Inter?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.