AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction and Betting Tips
Serie A · Sunday 1 November 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
AC Milan welcome Inter Milan to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano in Serie A action on Sunday 1 November 2026.
AC Milan have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 63% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Inter Milan have played 8 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.9 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 88% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 29% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Inter Milan are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 26% and AC Milan at 29%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AC Milan +0.25 at 2.05, Inter Milan at 1.85. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.5).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 59.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Inter Milan: form and key numbers
In style Inter Milan keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.88 a match created, 1.01 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.0).
- Shots: 23.1 a match, 7.8 on target.
- Possession: 62.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.10.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: season averages side by side
| AC Milan | Per match | Inter Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 1.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.88 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.01 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 2.88 |
| 13.1 | Shots | 23.1 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 7.8 |
| 2.4 | Big chances missed | 3.6 |
| 63.9 | Pressure share % | 81.7 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 16.8 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 8.8 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- AC Milan have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: AC Milan 11, Inter Milan 6 - 1.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished AC Milan 1-0 Inter Milan (March 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings AC Milan won 3, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | AC Milan | 1 – 0 | Inter Milan |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Inter Milan | 0 – 1 | AC Milan |
| 2 Feb 2025 | AC Milan | 1 – 1 | Inter Milan |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Inter Milan | 1 – 2 | AC Milan |
| 16 May 2023 | Inter Milan | 1 – 0 | AC Milan |
| 10 May 2023 | AC Milan | 0 – 2 | Inter Milan |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 70 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Christian Pulisic RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
Inter Milan
- Manuel Akanji CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 71 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Carlos Augusto LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Crosser (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcus Thuram
Marcus Thuram, 29 · Inter · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 73
Marcus Thuram, 29, plays as a centre-forward for Inter in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 73
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.49 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.81 / 90 | 91% |
| Goals | 0.98 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 1.57 / 90 | 85% |
| Duels won | 6.67 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher.
- What Marcus Thuram is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcus Thuram's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
AC Milan vs Inter Milan prediction
Inter Milan should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.63 for AC Milan and 1.67 for Inter Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Inter Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
AC Milan vs Inter Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: Inter Milan win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open AC Milan vs Inter Milan in the Match Centre Follow it live
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- Torino vs Como Wednesday 28 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Bologna Thursday 29 October 2026
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: questions and answers
When is AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
AC Milan vs Inter Milan is on Sunday 1 November 2026, in Serie A.
Where is AC Milan vs Inter Milan played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano, AC Milan's home ground.
Who will win AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
Inter Milan are the favourites: AC Milan 29%, draw 26%, Inter Milan 45%. Our prediction is AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan.
Who is the player to watch in AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
Marcus Thuram of Inter: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Inter Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.