AC Milan vs Lecce: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 20 September 2026 · 02:45 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
AC Milan host Lecce in the Serie A on Sunday 20 September 2026 (02:45).
Form in numbers
- AC Milan create more: 1.59 expected goals a match against 0.99 for Lecce.
- AC Milan give away less, 1.11 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: AC Milan 12.8 (4.2 on target), Lecce 8.4 (3.4 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): AC Milan 63.2%, Lecce 21.4%.
| AC Milan | Per match | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | 2.04 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 8.4 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 2.6 | Big chances missed | 1.4 |
| 63.2 | Pressure share % | 21.4 |
| 14.8 | Tackles | 23.6 |
| 10.2 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings AC Milan won 5, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | AC Milan | 3 – 0 | Lecce |
| 18 Jan 2026 | AC Milan | 1 – 0 | Lecce |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Lecce | 0 – 2 | AC Milan |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Lecce | 2 – 3 | AC Milan |
| 27 Sep 2024 | AC Milan | 3 – 0 | Lecce |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.