Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Inter Milan host Parma Calcio in the Serie A on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Inter Milan clear favourites at 80%, with the draw at 12% and Parma Calcio at 8%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Inter Milan -2.25 at 1.88, Parma Calcio at 2.03. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.85, under 2.03, which gives over 52%.
Form in numbers
- Inter Milan create more: 2.80 expected goals a match against 0.82 for Parma Calcio.
- Inter Milan give away less, 1.24 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Inter Milan 23.2 (7.4 on target), Parma Calcio 8.2 (2.8 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Inter Milan 80.1%, Parma Calcio 29.5%.
| Inter Milan | Per match | Parma Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.82 |
| 1.24 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 3.00 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 23.2 | Shots | 8.2 |
| 7.4 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 3.6 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 80.1 | Pressure share % | 29.5 |
| 16.6 | Tackles | 12.0 |
| 6.6 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Inter Milan won 3, drew 1 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Inter Milan | 2 – 0 | Parma Calcio |
| 7 Jan 2026 | Parma Calcio | 0 – 2 | Inter Milan |
| 5 Apr 2025 | Parma Calcio | 2 – 2 | Inter Milan |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Inter Milan | 3 – 1 | Parma Calcio |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Serie A previews
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- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.