Lecce vs Bologna: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Lecce host Bologna in the Serie A on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bookmakers make Bologna narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 29% and Lecce at 27%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lecce +0.25 at 2.17, Bologna at 1.75. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 2.06, which gives over 53%.
Form in numbers
- Bologna create more: 1.31 expected goals a match against 0.99 for Lecce.
- Bologna give away less, 0.89 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Lecce 8.4 (3.4 on target), Bologna 13.4 (3.2 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Lecce 21.4%, Bologna 49.0%.
| Lecce | Per match | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.31 |
| 2.04 | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 0.60 |
| 8.4 | Shots | 13.4 |
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 3.2 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 21.4 | Pressure share % | 49.0 |
| 23.6 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 14.6 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lecce won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Bologna | 2 – 0 | Lecce |
| 28 Sep 2025 | Lecce | 2 – 2 | Bologna |
| 9 Feb 2025 | Lecce | 0 – 0 | Bologna |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Bologna | 1 – 0 | Lecce |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.