Genoa vs Fiorentina: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Serie A · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Genoa host Fiorentina in the Serie A on Saturday 10 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Genoa 30%, the draw 29%, Fiorentina 41% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Genoa 0 at 2.26, Fiorentina at 1.69. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.83, under 2.06, which gives over 53%.
Form in numbers
- Fiorentina create more: 1.72 expected goals a match against 0.96 for Genoa.
- Genoa give away less, 1.27 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Genoa 11.8 (3.0 on target), Fiorentina 16.8 (5.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Genoa 45.0%, Fiorentina 51.0%.
| Genoa | Per match | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 0.60 | Goals | 1.20 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 45.0 | Pressure share % | 51.0 |
| 17.8 | Tackles | 14.2 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Genoa won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Fiorentina | 0 – 0 | Genoa |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Genoa | 2 – 2 | Fiorentina |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | 2 – 1 | Genoa |
| 31 Oct 2024 | Genoa | 0 – 1 | Fiorentina |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Napoli vs Frosinone Sunday 11 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.