Napoli vs Frosinone: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Napoli host Frosinone in the Serie A on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bookmakers make Napoli clear favourites at 64%, with the draw at 21% and Frosinone at 15%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Napoli -1 at 1.75, Frosinone at 2.17. The main goals line is 3: over 1.97, under 1.92, which gives over 49%.
Form in numbers
- Frosinone create more: 1.59 expected goals a match against 1.48 for Napoli.
- Napoli give away less, 1.59 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Napoli 13.8 (4.2 on target), Frosinone 16.8 (5.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Napoli 51.5%, Frosinone 40.1%.
| Napoli | Per match | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 2.07 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 1.80 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 16.8 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 51.5 | Pressure share % | 40.1 |
| 17.0 | Tackles | 20.2 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 17.4 |
| 0.8 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Genoa vs Fiorentina Saturday 10 October 2026
- Inter Milan vs Parma Calcio Saturday 10 October 2026
- Como vs AS Roma Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lazio vs Monza Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lecce vs Bologna Sunday 11 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.