AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · updated 2026-10-09
AFC Bournemouth host Sunderland in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Vitality Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 1.75, Sunderland 1.35.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Brian Brobbey
Brian Brobbey, 24 · Sunderland · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Brian Brobbey as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 64, defensive 26).
- Shot quality (xG per shot): 0.27 xG per shot, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 0.66 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of centre-forwards
- Big chances missed: 0.22 per 90 minutes, better than 78% of centre-forwards
AFC Bournemouth concede 1.6 goals a match this season (1.23 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a poacher like Brian Brobbey.
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| AFC Bournemouth | Per match this season | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | 1.60 |
| 13.6 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 5.2 | On target | 5.0 |
| 47.6 | Possession % | 48.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
AFC Bournemouth
- Marcus Tavernier midfielder · rating 7.49 · 5 apps
- Alex Scott midfielder · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
- Justin Kluivert midfielder · rating 7.05 · 4 apps
Sunderland
- Granit Xhaka midfielder · rating 7.45 · 5 apps
- Brian Brobbey forward · rating 7.22 · 5 apps
- Enzo Le Fée midfielder · rating 7.14 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Everton vs Chelsea Saturday 17 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Brentford vs Liverpool Saturday 17 October 2026
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.