Everton vs Chelsea: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium · updated 2026-10-09
Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Everton favourites at 50%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.1 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Everton 1.83, Chelsea 1.24.
- Over 2.5 goals: 59% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks João Pedro as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 34).
- Duels won: 8.50 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of centre-forwards
- Key passes: 1.75 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of centre-forwards
- Aerial duels won: 3.50 per 90 minutes, better than 84% of centre-forwards
Everton concede only 0.6 goals a match this season (1.45 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a target man like João Pedro.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Chance creator, Dominant in the air.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Everton | Per match this season | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.45 | xG conceded | 1.71 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 4.6 | On target | 5.2 |
| 43.6 | Possession % | 47.2 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 6.6 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Everton
- James Tarkowski defender · rating 7.49 · 5 apps
- Jarrad Branthwaite defender · rating 7.26 · 5 apps
- Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall midfielder · rating 7.22 · 5 apps
Chelsea
- João Pedro forward · rating 7.76 · 4 apps
- Cole Palmer forward · rating 7.52 · 5 apps
- Morgan Rogers forward · rating 7.45 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Brentford vs Liverpool Saturday 17 October 2026
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.