Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne · updated 2026-10-09
Newcastle United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October 2026 at St. James' Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Newcastle United favourites at 50%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Newcastle United 1.78, Aston Villa 1.20.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Sven Botman
Sven Botman, 26 · Newcastle United · CB · Box defender
Moneyball Scout picks Sven Botman as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 22, defensive 61).
- Clearances: 8.20 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of centre-backs
- Blocked shots: 1.60 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-backs
- Aerial duels won: 3.40 per 90 minutes, better than 90% of centre-backs
Aston Villa score 0.8 goals a match this season from 0.93 expected: stopping them runs through Sven Botman.
Scout's notes: Box defender, Blocks shots, Dominant in the air.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Newcastle United | Per match this season | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.93 |
| 1.98 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 9.6 |
| 3.6 | On target | 2.4 |
| 49.0 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.62 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Newcastle United
- Lewis Hall defender · rating 7.37 · 5 apps
- Anthony Elanga midfielder · rating 7.09 · 3 apps
- Joe Willock midfielder · rating 6.99 · 5 apps
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki goalkeeper · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
- Emiliano Buendía midfielder · rating 6.86 · 5 apps
- Boubacar Kamara midfielder · rating 6.86 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Everton vs Chelsea Saturday 17 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Brentford vs Liverpool Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.