Brentford vs Liverpool: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford · updated 2026-10-09
Brentford host Liverpool in the Premier League on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Gtech Community Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Brentford favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brentford 1.64, Liverpool 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak, 27 · Liverpool · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Alexander Isak as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 59, defensive 54).
- Expected goals: 0.73 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of centre-forwards
- Shot quality (xG per shot): 0.22 xG per shot, better than 89% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 0.87 per 90 minutes, better than 87% of centre-forwards
Brentford concede only 0.8 goals a match this season (1.38 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a poacher like Alexander Isak.
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots, Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Brentford | Per match this season | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| 1.38 | xG conceded | 1.32 |
| 16.2 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 4.6 | On target | 4.8 |
| 45.2 | Possession % | 59.0 |
| 40% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.89 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Brentford
- Vitaly Janelt midfielder · rating 7.33 · 5 apps
- Jannik Schuster defender · rating 7.23 · 3 apps
- Kevin Schade midfielder · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
Liverpool
- Dominik Szoboszlai midfielder · rating 7.44 · 5 apps
- Jérémy Jacquet defender · rating 7.29 · 5 apps
- Cody Gakpo midfielder · rating 7.26 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 10 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Newcastle United Monday 12 October 2026
- Everton vs Chelsea Saturday 17 October 2026
- Manchester City vs Ipswich Town Saturday 17 October 2026
- Fulham vs Hull City Saturday 17 October 2026
- Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Saturday 17 October 2026
- Leeds United vs Manchester United Sunday 18 October 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace Sunday 18 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.