NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 13
Eredivisie · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · updated 2026-11-13
NEC Nijmegen welcome PSV to Goffertstadion in Nijmegen in Eredivisie Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
NEC Nijmegen have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. PSV have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 3.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, PSV are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 21% and NEC Nijmegen at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.46, PSV 2.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
NEC Nijmegen: form and key numbers
In style NEC Nijmegen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.69 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 59.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
PSV: form and key numbers
In style PSV keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +11.1).
- Shots: 19.4 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 61.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.03.
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV: season averages side by side
| NEC Nijmegen | Per match this season | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 3.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.41 |
| 1.69 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 19.4 |
| 4.6 | On target | 7.3 |
| 59.2 | Possession % | 61.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 6.5 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 7.03 |
Players to watch
NEC Nijmegen
- Clement Mutahi Bischoff WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Chance creator, Draws fouls (top 15% of his position)
- Darko Nejasmic DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 54 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 4% of his position)
PSV
- Esmir Bajraktarevic RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 18% of his position)
- Ivan Perisic RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Crosser, Creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sven Mijnans
Sven Mijnans, 26 · PSV · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 70
Sven Mijnans, 26, plays as an attacking midfielder for PSV in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 70
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 63
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 98% |
| Shots | 4.37 / 90 | 94% |
| Through balls | 0.00 / 90 | 85% |
| Big chances created | 0.15 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.19 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Through-ball threat.
⚠ 9 goals from only 4.5 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Sven Mijnans is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sven Mijnans's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV prediction
PSV should have more of the ball; NEC Nijmegen are a threat in the air and from set pieces; PSV work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.46 for NEC Nijmegen and 2.19 for PSV - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 69%. PSV have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: NEC Nijmegen 1-3 PSV
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV: what the numbers say
- 1. PSV unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 71% by the model, 3.65 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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NEC Nijmegen vs PSV: questions and answers
When is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV?
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 13.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV played?
At Goffertstadion, Nijmegen, NEC Nijmegen's home ground.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs PSV?
PSV are the favourites: NEC Nijmegen 25%, draw 21%, PSV 54%. Our prediction is NEC Nijmegen 1-3 PSV.
Who is the player to watch in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV?
Sven Mijnans of PSV: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.