FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 13
Eredivisie · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Euroborg, Groningen · updated 2026-11-13
FC Groningen welcome SC Heerenveen to Euroborg in Groningen in Eredivisie Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
FC Groningen have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.2 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. SC Heerenveen have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: FC Groningen 38%, the draw 23%, SC Heerenveen 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Groningen 1.83, SC Heerenveen 1.86.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 71%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
FC Groningen: form and key numbers
In style FC Groningen play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.9).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 8% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 92% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
SC Heerenveen: form and key numbers
In style SC Heerenveen play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.65 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.2).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 42% of matches (20% away).
- Both teams scored in 42% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen: season averages side by side
| FC Groningen | Per match this season | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 2.4 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 2.08 | xG conceded | 1.65 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 14.9 |
| 5.8 | On target | 5.8 |
| 49.2 | Possession % | 50.8 |
| 8% | Clean sheets % | 42% |
| 92% | Both teams scored % | 42% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.1 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
FC Groningen
- Thom van Bergen AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 35 · Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls (top 9% of his position)
- Jacob Ondrejka LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 34 · Draws fouls, Big-chance creator (top 45% of his position)
SC Heerenveen
- Levi Smans AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 37 · Chance creator, Creator (top 28% of his position)
- Bernt Klaverboer GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 34 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 40% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: David van der Werff
David van der Werff, 22 · FC Groningen · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 37
David van der Werff, 22, plays as a winger for FC Groningen in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 37
- RM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 34
- LW · Winger Competent, 19
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.89 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 74% |
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 70% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.00 / 90 | 59% |
| Dispossessed | 0.78 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★½ Classic winger Winger
- What David van der Werff is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open David van der Werff's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen prediction
SC Heerenveen should have more of the ball; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 1.83 for FC Groningen and 1.86 for SC Heerenveen - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 71%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: FC Groningen 2-2 SC Heerenveen
FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 4 or more goals 50% by the model, 3.69 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 71% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen: questions and answers
When is FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen?
FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 13.
Where is FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen played?
At Euroborg, Groningen, FC Groningen's home ground.
Who will win FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen?
It is close: FC Groningen 38%, draw 23%, SC Heerenveen 39%. Our prediction is FC Groningen 2-2 SC Heerenveen.
Who is the player to watch in FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen?
David van der Werff of FC Groningen: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 37 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Groningen vs SC Heerenveen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.