Al Hazm vs Al Nassr Prediction and Stats | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13
Saudi Pro League · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 12:15 UTC · Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium) (Ar-Rass (Rass)), Rass · updated 2026-11-14
Al Hazm welcome Al Nassr to Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium) (Ar-Rass (Rass)) in Rass in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 12:15 UTC.
Al Hazm have played 12 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 50% win rate. Al Nassr have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 82% of them. Away from home they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Nassr are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 20% and Al Hazm at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Hazm 0.96, Al Nassr 2.19.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Al Hazm: form and key numbers
In style Al Hazm are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 2.14 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 9.9 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 43.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Al Nassr: form and key numbers
In style Al Nassr keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 0.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.3).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 55.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr: season averages side by side
| Al Hazm | Per match this season | Al Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 11 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 2.14 | xG conceded | 0.85 |
| 9.9 | Shots | 15.9 |
| 3.4 | On target | 6.4 |
| 43.9 | Possession % | 55.5 |
| 17% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Al Hazm
- Amir Sayoud AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 26 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 19% of his position)
- Ibrahim Zaied GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 21 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 46% of his position)
Al Nassr
- Cristiano Ronaldo CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 20 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 27% of his position)
- Samú Costa DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 14 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Félix
João Félix, 27 · Al Nassr · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 34
João Félix, 27, plays as a second striker for Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in assists, luck taken out and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 34
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 32
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 29
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Assists, luck taken out | 0.63 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.57 / 90 | 85% |
| Key passes | 3.46 / 90 | 79% |
| Fouls won | 1.99 / 90 | 50% |
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 44% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Sets up goals from real chances, Creator.
- What João Félix is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Félix's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr prediction
Al Nassr should have more of the ball, with Al Hazm likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Al Hazm like to take players on; Al Nassr work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 0.96 for Al Hazm and 2.19 for Al Nassr - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 55%. Al Nassr have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Al Hazm 1-2 Al Nassr
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Nassr win, the likeliest result 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 61% by the model, 3.14 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Al Ahli vs Al Nassr Friday 20 November 2026
- Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh Thursday 26 November 2026
- Abha vs Al Shabab Thursday 26 November 2026
- Al Faisaly vs Al Diraiyah FC Thursday 26 November 2026
- Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Friday 27 November 2026
- Al-Qadsiah vs Al-Fayha Friday 27 November 2026
- Al Ittihad vs NEOM SC Friday 27 November 2026
- Al Ettifaq vs Al Hilal Saturday 28 November 2026
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr: questions and answers
When is Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
Al Hazm vs Al Nassr is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 12:15 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13.
Where is Al Hazm vs Al Nassr played?
At Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium) (Ar-Rass (Rass)), Rass, Al Hazm's home ground.
Who will win Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
Al Nassr are the favourites: Al Hazm 15%, draw 20%, Al Nassr 65%. Our prediction is Al Hazm 1-2 Al Nassr.
Who is the player to watch in Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
João Félix of Al Nassr: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 34 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Hazm vs Al Nassr?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.