Arema vs Bali United Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 8
Liga 1 Indonesia · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 08:30 UTC · updated 2026-10-25
Arema welcome Bali United in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC.
Arema have played 7 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Bali United have played 7 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 2.9 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bali United are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 19% and Arema at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arema 1.88, Bali United 2.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 83% · both teams to score: 79%.
- Most likely score: 2–3 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Arema: form and key numbers
In style Arema are happy without the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 8.9 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 42.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Bali United: form and key numbers
In style Bali United keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 62.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.55.
Arema vs Bali United: season averages side by side
| Arema | Per match this season | Bali United |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 2.9 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 8.9 | Shots | 12.7 |
| 4.0 | On target | 4.7 |
| 42.4 | Possession % | 62.3 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.53 | Average rating | 6.55 |
Players to watch
Arema
- Adi Satryo GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 14% of his position)
- Matheus Blade DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 3 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 44% of his position)
Bali United
- Mike Hauptmeijer GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 1% of his position)
- Tim Geypens LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 3 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jort van der Sande
Jort van der Sande, 30 · Bali United · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4
Jort van der Sande, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bali United in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 4
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 60% | 83% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | – | 55% |
| Big chances missed | 0.00 / 90 | 22% |
| Goals | 0.73 / 90 | 2% |
| Expected goals | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ½ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter.
- What Jort van der Sande is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jort van der Sande's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arema vs Bali United prediction
Bali United should have more of the ball, with Arema likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Bali United like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 4.5 goals - 1.88 for Arema and 2.64 for Bali United - with over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams scoring at 79%. Bali United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Arema 2-3 Bali United
Arema vs Bali United betting tips
- Tip 1: Bali United win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 66% by the model, 4.52 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 79% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- Persija vs Persik Kediri Monday 26 October 2026
- Bhayangkara vs PSM Monday 26 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United Monday 26 October 2026
- PSS Sleman vs Borneo Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Malut United vs Bhayangkara Friday 30 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap Friday 30 October 2026
- PSM vs Madura United Saturday 31 October 2026
- Persik Kediri vs Persita Saturday 31 October 2026
Arema vs Bali United: questions and answers
When is Arema vs Bali United?
Arema vs Bali United is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 08:30 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 8.
Who will win Arema vs Bali United?
Bali United are the favourites: Arema 27%, draw 19%, Bali United 54%. Our prediction is Arema 2-3 Bali United.
Who is the player to watch in Arema vs Bali United?
Jort van der Sande of Bali United: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 4 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arema vs Bali United?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 83%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.