Bhayangkara vs PSM Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 7
Liga 1 Indonesia · Monday 26 October 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Stadion Patriot, Bekasi · updated 2026-10-25
Bhayangkara welcome PSM to Stadion Patriot in Bekasi in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 7 action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Bhayangkara have played 6 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. PSM have played 6 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bhayangkara are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 21% and PSM at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bhayangkara 2.26, PSM 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Bhayangkara: form and key numbers
In style Bhayangkara keep the ball, play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.36.
PSM: form and key numbers
In style PSM are happy without the ball, play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 10.3 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 44.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.39.
Bhayangkara vs PSM: season averages side by side
| Bhayangkara | Per match this season | PSM |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 10.3 |
| 5.7 | On target | 4.2 |
| 52.8 | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.36 | Average rating | 6.39 |
Players to watch
Bhayangkara
- Awan Setho Raharjo GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 8 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 17% of his position)
- Jefferson Brenes CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 4 · Secure passer, Press-resistant (top 9% of his position)
PSM
- Hilman Syah GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 8 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 10% of his position)
- Navarone Foor CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 3 · Secure passer, Creator (top 31% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mauricio Vera
Mauricio Vera, 28 · Bhayangkara · DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 5
Mauricio Vera, 28, plays as a defensive midfielder for Bhayangkara in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and dribbled past. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 5
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 87% |
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 38% |
| Dispossessed | 0.00 / 90 | 36% |
| Tackles | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
| Interceptions | 1.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ½ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
- ½ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer.
- What Mauricio Vera is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mauricio Vera's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bhayangkara vs PSM prediction
Bhayangkara should have more of the ball, with PSM likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.26 for Bhayangkara and 1.28 for PSM - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 65%. Bhayangkara have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bhayangkara 3-1 PSM
Bhayangkara vs PSM betting tips
- Tip 1: Bhayangkara to win 59% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.54 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- Persija vs Persik Kediri Monday 26 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United Monday 26 October 2026
- PSS Sleman vs Borneo Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Malut United vs Bhayangkara Friday 30 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap Friday 30 October 2026
- Arema vs Bali United Saturday 31 October 2026
- PSM vs Madura United Saturday 31 October 2026
- Persik Kediri vs Persita Saturday 31 October 2026
Bhayangkara vs PSM: questions and answers
When is Bhayangkara vs PSM?
Bhayangkara vs PSM is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 7.
Where is Bhayangkara vs PSM played?
At Stadion Patriot, Bekasi, Bhayangkara's home ground.
Who will win Bhayangkara vs PSM?
Bhayangkara are the favourites: Bhayangkara 59%, draw 21%, PSM 20%. Our prediction is Bhayangkara 3-1 PSM.
Who is the player to watch in Bhayangkara vs PSM?
Mauricio Vera of Bhayangkara: a deep-lying playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 5 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bhayangkara vs PSM?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.