Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 7
Liga 1 Indonesia · Monday 26 October 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya · updated 2026-10-25
Persebaya Surabaya welcome Madura United to Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo in Surabaya in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 7 action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Persebaya Surabaya have played 6 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Madura United have played 6 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Persebaya Surabaya 35%, the draw 30%, Madura United 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Persebaya Surabaya 1.15, Madura United 1.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Persebaya Surabaya: form and key numbers
In style Persebaya Surabaya keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.47.
Madura United: form and key numbers
In style Madura United take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 48.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United: season averages side by side
| Persebaya Surabaya | Per match this season | Madura United |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 12.7 | Shots | 12.5 |
| 4.2 | On target | 4.7 |
| 53.0 | Possession % | 48.2 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 7.7 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.47 | Average rating | 6.58 |
Players to watch
Persebaya Surabaya
- Ernando Ari GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 1% of his position)
- Alex CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 23% of his position)
Madura United
- Angga Saputra GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 5% of his position)
- Dimitar Mitkov CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 42% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ilhamsyah
Ilhamsyah, 27 · Madura United · DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 4
Ilhamsyah, 27, plays as a defensive midfielder for Madura United in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and dribbled past. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 4
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 4
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 86% |
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 37% |
| Blocked shots | 0.51 / 90 | 5% |
| Dispossessed | 0.34 / 90 | 2% |
| Tackles | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer.
- What Ilhamsyah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United prediction
Persebaya Surabaya should have more of the ball; Persebaya Surabaya work the ball wide and cross; Madura United like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.15 for Persebaya Surabaya and 1.13 for Madura United - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 47%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Madura United
Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 35%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 12.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- Persija vs Persik Kediri Monday 26 October 2026
- Bhayangkara vs PSM Monday 26 October 2026
- PSS Sleman vs Borneo Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Malut United vs Bhayangkara Friday 30 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap Friday 30 October 2026
- Arema vs Bali United Saturday 31 October 2026
- PSM vs Madura United Saturday 31 October 2026
- Persik Kediri vs Persita Saturday 31 October 2026
Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United: questions and answers
When is Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 7.
Where is Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United played?
At Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo, Surabaya, Persebaya Surabaya's home ground.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
It is close: Persebaya Surabaya 35%, draw 30%, Madura United 35%. Our prediction is Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Madura United.
Who is the player to watch in Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Ilhamsyah of Madura United: a deep-lying playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 4 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.