Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14
Liga Profesional Argentina · Tuesday 27 October 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Capital Federal · updated 2026-10-25
Argentinos Juniors welcome Independiente Rivadavia to Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14 action on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 22:00 UTC.
Argentinos Juniors have played 32 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 71% win rate. Independiente Rivadavia have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 14 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Argentinos Juniors are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27% and Independiente Rivadavia at 29%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.48, Independiente Rivadavia 1.16.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 30 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Argentinos Juniors: form and key numbers
In style Argentinos Juniors keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.10 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.4).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 61.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (64% at home).
- Both teams scored in 47% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Independiente Rivadavia: form and key numbers
In style Independiente Rivadavia play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.3).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 48.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (86% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: season averages side by side
| Argentinos Juniors | Per match this season | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 30 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.10 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 13.9 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.1 |
| 61.6 | Possession % | 48.2 |
| 44% | Clean sheets % | 23% |
| 47% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Argentinos Juniors
- Francisco Álvarez CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 53 · Long passer, Reads the game (top 10% of his position)
- Claudio Bravo LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 52 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
Independiente Rivadavia
- Luis Sequeira AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 56 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 13% of his position)
- Matías Reali RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Álex Arce
Álex Arce, 31 · Independiente Rivadavia · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 61
Álex Arce, 31, plays as a centre-forward for Independiente Rivadavia in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 6.13 / 90 | 98% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 94% |
| Duels won | 8.64 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 65% |
| Shots on target | 44% | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner.
- What Álex Arce is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia prediction
Argentinos Juniors should have more of the ball, with Independiente Rivadavia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Argentinos Juniors work the ball wide and cross; Independiente Rivadavia are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.48 for Argentinos Juniors and 1.16 for Independiente Rivadavia - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Argentinos Juniors have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Argentinos Juniors 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia betting tips
- Tip 1: Argentinos Juniors win or draw (double chance) 71% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.63 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Huracán vs Tigre Friday 30 October 2026
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: questions and answers
When is Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia is on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 22:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14.
Where is Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia played?
At Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Capital Federal, Argentinos Juniors's home ground.
Who will win Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Argentinos Juniors are the favourites: Argentinos Juniors 44%, draw 27%, Independiente Rivadavia 29%. Our prediction is Argentinos Juniors 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Who is the player to watch in Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Álex Arce of Independiente Rivadavia: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
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