River Plate vs Racing Club Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 25 October 2026 · 22:15 UTC · Estadio Mâs Monumental, Capital Federal · updated 2026-10-25
River Plate welcome Racing Club to Estadio Mâs Monumental in Capital Federal in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14 action on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 22:15 UTC.
River Plate have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 52% of them. At home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 19 matches, with a 59% win rate. Racing Club have played 31 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 56% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, River Plate are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 22% and Racing Club at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: River Plate 2.02, Racing Club 0.83.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (33 and 31 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
River Plate: form and key numbers
In style River Plate keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 0.78 conceded (goals minus xG: -8.0).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 65.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (58% at home).
- Both teams scored in 39% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Racing Club: form and key numbers
In style Racing Club keep the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.52 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.6).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 8.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
River Plate vs Racing Club: season averages side by side
| River Plate | Per match this season | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Matches | 31 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.21 |
| 0.78 | xG conceded | 1.52 |
| 16.7 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.5 | On target | 3.8 |
| 65.3 | Possession % | 56.6 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 26% |
| 39% | Both teams scored % | 61% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.93 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
River Plate
- Ángel Correa SS · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 75 · Dribbler, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Juan Fernando Quintero AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 65 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 4% of his position)
Racing Club
- Gastón Lodico CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 54 · Creator, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
- Leonel Pérez DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 48 · Duel winner, Press-resistant (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gabriel Rojas
Gabriel Rojas, 29 · Racing Club · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 49
Gabriel Rojas, 29, plays as a wing-back for Racing Club in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in dribbled past and accurate crosses. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 49
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 49
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 45
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dribbled past | 0.28 / 90 | 92% |
| Accurate crosses | 2.16 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 2.09 / 90 | 73% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 58% |
| Interceptions | 1.19 / 90 | 48% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Hard to dribble past, Crosser.
- What Gabriel Rojas is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gabriel Rojas's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
River Plate vs Racing Club prediction
River Plate should have more of the ball; River Plate go long and direct; Racing Club are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 2.02 for River Plate and 0.83 for Racing Club - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 50%. River Plate have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: River Plate 2-1 Racing Club
River Plate vs Racing Club betting tips
- Tip 1: River Plate to win 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.85 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 16.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Huracán vs Tigre Friday 30 October 2026
River Plate vs Racing Club: questions and answers
When is River Plate vs Racing Club?
River Plate vs Racing Club is on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 22:15 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 14.
Where is River Plate vs Racing Club played?
At Estadio Mâs Monumental, Capital Federal, River Plate's home ground.
Who will win River Plate vs Racing Club?
River Plate are the favourites: River Plate 65%, draw 22%, Racing Club 14%. Our prediction is River Plate 2-1 Racing Club.
Who is the player to watch in River Plate vs Racing Club?
Gabriel Rojas of Racing Club: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 49 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in River Plate vs Racing Club?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.