Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London · updated 2026-11-13
Arsenal welcome Borussia Dortmund to Emirates Stadium in London in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Arsenal have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 29% and Borussia Dortmund at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arsenal 1.39, Borussia Dortmund 0.82.
- Over 2.5 goals: 38% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Arsenal: form and key numbers
In style Arsenal keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.29 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.1).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 56.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 2.41 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| Arsenal | Per match this season | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 2.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.41 |
| 17.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 6.5 | On target | 6.3 |
| 56.5 | Possession % | 53.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 7.02 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Arsenal
- Noni Madueke RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 76 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 6% of his position)
- Martin Ødegaard AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 74 · Through-ball threat, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 74 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Joey Veerman CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 71 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 81
Serhou Guirassy, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals, luck taken out. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 81
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 74
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.46 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 3.08 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 1.67 / 90 | 90% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 xG/shot | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, High shot volume.
- What Serhou Guirassy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Serhou Guirassy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Arsenal should have more of the ball; Arsenal are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Borussia Dortmund press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.39 for Arsenal and 0.82 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 43%. Arsenal have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Borussia Dortmund
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: what the numbers say
- 1. Arsenal unbeaten (win or draw) 79% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 62% by the model, 2.20 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Emirates Stadium, London, Arsenal's home ground.
Who will win Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Arsenal are the favourites: Arsenal 50%, draw 29%, Borussia Dortmund 21%. Our prediction is Arsenal 2-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 81 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.