Real Madrid vs PSV Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid · updated 2026-11-13
Real Madrid welcome PSV to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Real Madrid have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. PSV have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Real Madrid are clear favourites at 75%, with the draw at 16% and PSV at 9%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Madrid 2.64, PSV 0.85.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 3–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 3.11 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 18.5 a match, 8.8 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
PSV: form and key numbers
In style PSV keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 16.5 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 58.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
Real Madrid vs PSV: season averages side by side
| Real Madrid | Per match this season | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 3.3 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 3.11 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 18.5 | Shots | 16.5 |
| 8.8 | On target | 4.8 |
| 54.0 | Possession % | 58.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 7.05 | Average rating | 6.97 |
Players to watch
Real Madrid
- Jude Bellingham AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
- Kylian Mbappé CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 73 · High shot volume, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring (top 1% of his position)
PSV
- Sven Mijnans AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 70 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 2% of his position)
- Esmir Bajraktarevic RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 62 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 91
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 91
- RW · Winger Natural, 90
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 86
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 5.08 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.80 / 90 | 100% |
| Big chances created | 1.69 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 0.36 / 90 | 95% |
| Through balls | 0.24 / 90 | 90% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Real Madrid vs PSV prediction
PSV should have more of the ball; Real Madrid like to take players on; PSV work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.64 for Real Madrid and 0.85 for PSV - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 54%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-0 PSV
Real Madrid vs PSV: what the numbers say
- 1. Real Madrid win, the likeliest result 75% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 68% by the model, 3.49 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 13.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Real Madrid vs PSV: questions and answers
When is Real Madrid vs PSV?
Real Madrid vs PSV is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Real Madrid vs PSV played?
At Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Real Madrid's home ground.
Who will win Real Madrid vs PSV?
Real Madrid are the favourites: Real Madrid 75%, draw 16%, PSV 9%. Our prediction is Real Madrid 3-0 PSV.
Who is the player to watch in Real Madrid vs PSV?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 91 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs PSV?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.