Manchester City vs Napoli Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester · updated 2026-11-13
Manchester City welcome Napoli to Etihad Stadium in Manchester in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Manchester City have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 3.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 33% win rate. Napoli have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Manchester City are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 22% and Napoli at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Manchester City 2.10, Napoli 1.27.
- Over 2.5 goals: 65% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Manchester City: form and key numbers
In style Manchester City keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.49 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 19.0 a match, 7.8 on target.
- Possession: 61.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Manchester City vs Napoli: season averages side by side
| Manchester City | Per match this season | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.8 |
| 2.49 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 19.0 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 7.8 | On target | 5.0 |
| 61.8 | Possession % | 45.5 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 7.02 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Manchester City
- Phil Foden AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 73 · Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Erling Haaland CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
- Kevin De Bruyne AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 63 · Through-ball threat, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku, 24 · Manchester City · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 87
Jérémy Doku, 24, plays as a winger for Manchester City in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and big chances created. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 87
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 84
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 83
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 6.14 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.14 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.49 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.95 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.36 / 90 | 95% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Jérémy Doku is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jérémy Doku's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Manchester City vs Napoli prediction
Manchester City should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.10 for Manchester City and 1.27 for Napoli - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 64%. Manchester City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Napoli
Manchester City vs Napoli: what the numbers say
- 1. Manchester City win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 65% by the model, 3.37 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Manchester City vs Napoli: questions and answers
When is Manchester City vs Napoli?
Manchester City vs Napoli is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Manchester City vs Napoli played?
At Etihad Stadium, Manchester, Manchester City's home ground.
Who will win Manchester City vs Napoli?
Manchester City are the favourites: Manchester City 56%, draw 22%, Napoli 22%. Our prediction is Manchester City 2-1 Napoli.
Who is the player to watch in Manchester City vs Napoli?
Jérémy Doku of Manchester City: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 87 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Manchester City vs Napoli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.