Como vs AEK Athens Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como · updated 2026-11-13
Como welcome AEK Athens to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Como have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 4.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. AEK Athens have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Como are clear favourites at 69%, with the draw at 18% and AEK Athens at 12%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Como 2.36, AEK Athens 0.91.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Como: form and key numbers
In style Como keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.78 a match created (goals minus xG: +11.9).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 7.8 on target.
- Possession: 53.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
AEK Athens: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.43 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 43.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Como vs AEK Athens: season averages side by side
| Como | Per match this season | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 4.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 2.8 |
| 1.78 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.43 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 13.5 |
| 7.8 | On target | 3.8 |
| 53.8 | Possession % | 43.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 2.0 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 7.08 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Como
- Luis Milla CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Martin Baturina AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Draws fouls, Through-ball threat (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Nico Paz
Nico Paz, 22 · Como · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 82
Nico Paz, 22, plays as an attacking midfielder for Como in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and successful dribbles. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 82
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 78
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.03 / 90 | 100% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.97 / 90 | 96% |
| Through balls | 0.22 / 90 | 94% |
| Big chances created | 0.22 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.35 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Dribbler, Through-ball threat.
- What Nico Paz is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Como vs AEK Athens prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 2.36 for Como and 0.91 for AEK Athens - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 55%. Como have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Como 2-1 AEK Athens
Como vs AEK Athens: what the numbers say
- 1. Como win, the likeliest result 69% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 3 or more goals 63% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 5.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Como vs AEK Athens: questions and answers
When is Como vs AEK Athens?
Como vs AEK Athens is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is Como vs AEK Athens played?
At Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como, Como's home ground.
Who will win Como vs AEK Athens?
Como are the favourites: Como 69%, draw 18%, AEK Athens 12%. Our prediction is Como 2-1 AEK Athens.
Who is the player to watch in Como vs AEK Athens?
Nico Paz of Como: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Como vs AEK Athens?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.