RB Leipzig vs Lens Prediction and Stats | Champions League Gameweek 5
Champions League · Tuesday 24 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · updated 2026-11-13
RB Leipzig welcome Lens to Red Bull Arena in Leipzig in Champions League Gameweek 5 action on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
RB Leipzig have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Lens have played 4 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 4.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, RB Leipzig are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 19% and Lens at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.48, Lens 1.21.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.38 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 14.5 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 40.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
Lens: form and key numbers
In style Lens cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.50 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.0).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 51.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
RB Leipzig vs Lens: season averages side by side
| RB Leipzig | Per match this season | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.8 | Goals conceded | 4.0 |
| 1.38 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.50 |
| 14.5 | Shots | 19.3 |
| 5.8 | On target | 6.0 |
| 40.8 | Possession % | 51.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.65 | Average rating | 6.63 |
Players to watch
RB Leipzig
- Rômulo CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 65 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 4% of his position)
- Maarten Vandevoordt GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Lens
- Florian Thauvin RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 76 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Andrija Bulatovic CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 68 · Chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa, 21 · RB Leipzig · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 85
Antonio Nusa, 21, plays as a winger for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in big chances created and expected assists (est.). Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 85
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 81
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Big chances created | 1.24 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.51 / 90 | 96% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.03 / 90 | 94% |
| Key passes | 2.62 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots | 2.62 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Big-chance creator, Creator, Dribbler.
- What Antonio Nusa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Antonio Nusa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
RB Leipzig vs Lens prediction
RB Leipzig should have more of the ball, with Lens likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; RB Leipzig like to take players on; Lens work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.48 for RB Leipzig and 1.21 for Lens - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 65%. RB Leipzig have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 3-1 Lens
RB Leipzig vs Lens: what the numbers say
- 1. RB Leipzig win, the likeliest result 65% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 50% by the model, 3.69 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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RB Leipzig vs Lens: questions and answers
When is RB Leipzig vs Lens?
RB Leipzig vs Lens is on Tuesday 24 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 5.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Lens played?
At Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, RB Leipzig's home ground.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Lens?
RB Leipzig are the favourites: RB Leipzig 65%, draw 19%, Lens 17%. Our prediction is RB Leipzig 3-1 Lens.
Who is the player to watch in RB Leipzig vs Lens?
Antonio Nusa of RB Leipzig: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 85 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in RB Leipzig vs Lens?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.