Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Chelsea host Bournemouth AFC in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Chelsea narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 24% and Bournemouth AFC at 26%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Chelsea -0.5 at 1.80, Bournemouth AFC at 2.11. The main goals line is 3.25: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Form in numbers
- Chelsea create more: 1.55 expected goals a match against 1.52 for Bournemouth AFC.
- Bournemouth AFC give away less, 1.23 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Chelsea 14.4 (5.2 on target), Bournemouth AFC 13.6 (5.2 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Chelsea 50.3%, Bournemouth AFC 52.3%.
| Chelsea | Per match | Bournemouth AFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 |
| 1.71 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.20 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 13.6 |
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 2.4 |
| 50.3 | Pressure share % | 52.3 |
| 15.6 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 8.6 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Chelsea won 1, drew 3 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | Chelsea | 2 – 2 | Bournemouth AFC |
| 6 Dec 2025 | Bournemouth AFC | 0 – 0 | Chelsea |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Chelsea | 2 – 2 | Bournemouth AFC |
| 14 Sep 2024 | Bournemouth AFC | 0 – 1 | Chelsea |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
- Arsenal vs Leeds United Saturday 10 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Brentford Saturday 10 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Fulham Saturday 10 October 2026
- Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 10 October 2026
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.