Aston Villa vs Brentford: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Premier League · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Aston Villa host Brentford in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Aston Villa 36%, the draw 27%, Brentford 37% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Aston Villa 0 at 1.99, Brentford at 1.92. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Brentford create more: 1.96 expected goals a match against 0.93 for Aston Villa.
- Brentford give away less, 1.38 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Aston Villa 9.6 (2.4 on target), Brentford 16.2 (4.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Aston Villa 32.4%, Brentford 53.1%.
| Aston Villa | Per match | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| 1.77 | xG conceded | 1.38 |
| 0.80 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 9.6 | Shots | 16.2 |
| 2.4 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 0.8 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 32.4 | Pressure share % | 53.1 |
| 16.2 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Aston Villa won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Aston Villa | 0 – 1 | Brentford |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Brentford | 1 – 0 | Aston Villa |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Brentford | 0 – 1 | Aston Villa |
| 4 Dec 2024 | Aston Villa | 3 – 1 | Brentford |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Aston Villa vs Brentford in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Premier League previews
- Arsenal vs Leeds United Saturday 10 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth AFC Saturday 10 October 2026
- Ipswich Town vs Fulham Saturday 10 October 2026
- Sunderland vs Brighton & Hove Albion Saturday 10 October 2026
- Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur Sunday 11 October 2026
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.