Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Premier League · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Manchester United host Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bookmakers make Manchester United narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 23% and Tottenham Hotspur at 23%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Manchester United -0.75 at 1.96, Tottenham Hotspur at 1.94. The main goals line is 3: over 1.83, under 2.06, which gives over 53%.
Form in numbers
- Manchester United create more: 2.07 expected goals a match against 1.04 for Tottenham Hotspur.
- Manchester United give away less, 1.04 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Manchester United 22.6 (5.6 on target), Tottenham Hotspur 14.2 (3.8 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Manchester United 73.4%, Tottenham Hotspur 54.8%.
| Manchester United | Per match | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| 2.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 1.04 | xG conceded | 1.67 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 0.40 |
| 22.6 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 1.6 |
| 73.4 | Pressure share % | 54.8 |
| 13.0 | Tackles | 18.6 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 13.2 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Manchester United won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | Manchester United | 2 – 0 | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 – 2 | Manchester United |
| 21 May 2025 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 – 0 | Manchester United |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 – 0 | Manchester United |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Manchester United | 0 – 3 | Tottenham Hotspur |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.