Arsenal vs LOSC Lille: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London · updated 2026-10-09
Arsenal host LOSC Lille in the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Emirates Stadium. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Arsenal favourites at 51%, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Arsenal 1.62, LOSC Lille 1.01.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard, 27 · Arsenal · AMF · Creator
Moneyball Scout picks Martin Ødegaard as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 65 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 67, defensive 59).
- Dispossessed: 0.24 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of attacking midfielders
- Expected assists (est.): 0.38 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of attacking midfielders
- Pass accuracy: 91%, better than 91% of attacking midfielders
LOSC Lille concede 0.8 goals a match this season (1.69 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a creator like Martin Ødegaard.
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Creator, Secure passer.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Arsenal | Per match this season | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.79 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 0.92 | xG conceded | 1.69 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 4.8 | On target | 6.4 |
| 59.4 | Possession % | 47.6 |
| 60% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 20% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.87 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Arsenal in its domestic league; LOSC Lille in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Arsenal
- Bukayo Saka midfielder · rating 7.40 · 5 apps
- Martin Ødegaard midfielder · rating 7.34 · 5 apps
- Declan Rice midfielder · rating 7.24 · 5 apps
LOSC Lille
- Tiago Santos defender · rating 7.44 · 5 apps
- Berke Özer goalkeeper · rating 7.25 · 5 apps
- Alexsandro defender · rating 7.18 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.