Villarreal vs Napoli: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · updated 2026-10-09
Villarreal host Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Estadio de la Cerámica. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Villarreal favourites at 52%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Villarreal 2.03, Napoli 1.38.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro, 23 · Villarreal · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Alberto Moleiro as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 79, defensive 46).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.47 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Key passes: 3.50 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Big chances created: 0.88 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
Napoli concede 1.2 goals a match this season (1.59 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a creative winger like Alberto Moleiro.
Scout's notes: Creator, Chance creator, Big-chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Villarreal | Per match this season | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 5 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 2.28 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 |
| 1.34 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 16.0 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 6.6 | On target | 4.2 |
| 61.9 | Possession % | 49.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 86% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 7.3 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Villarreal in its domestic league; Napoli in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Villarreal
- Juan Foyth defender · rating 7.43 · 3 apps
- Alberto Moleiro midfielder · rating 7.31 · 7 apps
- Péter Gulácsi goalkeeper · rating 7.30 · 3 apps
Napoli
- Kevin De Bruyne midfielder · rating 7.21 · 5 apps
- Stanislav Lobotka midfielder · rating 7.13 · 5 apps
- Amir Rrahmani defender · rating 7.05 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
- Sabah vs Slavia Praha Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Lens vs Sporting CP Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs PSV Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.