RB Leipzig vs PSV: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · updated 2026-10-09
RB Leipzig host PSV in the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Red Bull Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes RB Leipzig favourites at 55%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 2.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: RB Leipzig 1.84, PSV 1.05.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa, 21 · RB Leipzig · LWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Antonio Nusa as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 67, defensive 35).
- Successful dribbles: 3.42 per 90 minutes, better than 92% of wingers
- Big chances created: 0.79 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of wingers
- Fouls won: 2.37 per 90 minutes, better than 85% of wingers
PSV concede only 1.0 goals a match this season: breaking that defence is the job of a creative winger like Antonio Nusa.
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Big-chance creator, Draws fouls.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| RB Leipzig | Per match this season | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 1 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.52 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | – |
| 18.8 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 6.3 | On target | 2.0 |
| 57.8 | Possession % | 54.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.99 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; RB Leipzig in its domestic league.
Players to watch
RB Leipzig
- Antonio Nusa midfielder · rating 7.79 · 4 apps
- Willi Orbán defender · rating 7.42 · 4 apps
- Ridle Baku defender · rating 7.25 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
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- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Napoli Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.