Lens vs Sporting CP: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens · updated 2026-10-09
Lens host Sporting CP in the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lens slight favourites at 40%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lens 1.75, Sporting CP 1.67.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 1 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin, 33 · Lens · RWF · Creative winger
Moneyball Scout picks Florian Thauvin as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 76 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 76, defensive 33).
- Accurate crosses: 2.60 per 90 minutes, better than 98% of wingers
- Expected goals: 0.68 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of wingers
- Expected assists (est.): 0.46 per 90 minutes, better than 97% of wingers
Sporting CP concede only 1.0 goals a match this season: breaking that defence is the job of a creative winger like Florian Thauvin.
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Lens | Per match this season | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 1 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.38 |
| 1.92 | xG conceded | – |
| 14.8 | Shots | 8.0 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.0 |
| 51.2 | Possession % | 38.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 7.0 | Corners | 1.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Lens in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Lens
- Florian Thauvin forward · rating 7.72 · 5 apps
- Ismaëlo Ganiou defender · rating 7.21 · 3 apps
- Matthieu Udol defender · rating 7.03 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.