Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Tuesday 13 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · updated 2026-10-09
Atlético de Madrid host Manchester United in the Champions League on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Atlético de Madrid favourites at 52%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Atlético de Madrid 1.92, Manchester United 1.25.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 5 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford, 28 · Manchester United · LWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Marcus Rashford as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 59, defensive 48).
- Key passes: 3.31 per 90 minutes, better than 96% of wingers
- Dispossessed: 0.25 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
- Shots: 3.31 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of wingers
Atlético de Madrid concede only 1.0 goals a match this season (1.05 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a inside forward like Marcus Rashford.
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Press-resistant, High shot volume.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Atlético de Madrid | Per match this season | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 5 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.6 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 16.9 | Shots | 22.6 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.6 |
| 57.1 | Possession % | 59.8 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 7.2 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Atlético de Madrid in its domestic league; Manchester United in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Atlético de Madrid
- Kang-in Lee forward · rating 7.38 · 7 apps
- Álex Baena midfielder · rating 7.32 · 7 apps
- Alejandro Grimaldo defender · rating 7.22 · 6 apps
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes midfielder · rating 7.67 · 5 apps
- Matheus Cunha forward · rating 7.27 · 5 apps
- Kobbie Mainoo midfielder · rating 7.19 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.