AS Monaco vs Toulouse: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
AS Monaco host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bookmakers make AS Monaco narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 25% and Toulouse at 22%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is AS Monaco -0.75 at 2.00, Toulouse at 1.90. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Form in numbers
- Toulouse create more: 1.90 expected goals a match against 1.18 for AS Monaco.
- AS Monaco give away less, 1.48 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: AS Monaco 10.2 (4.6 on target), Toulouse 14.8 (4.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): AS Monaco 41.0%, Toulouse 55.1%.
| AS Monaco | Per match | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| 1.18 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 1.86 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 10.2 | Shots | 14.8 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 2.2 |
| 41.0 | Pressure share % | 55.1 |
| 22.8 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 16.8 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings AS Monaco won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Toulouse | 2 – 2 | AS Monaco |
| 25 Oct 2025 | AS Monaco | 1 – 0 | Toulouse |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Toulouse | 1 – 1 | AS Monaco |
| 7 Dec 2024 | AS Monaco | 2 – 0 | Toulouse |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open AS Monaco vs Toulouse in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.