Lille vs Le Havre: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Ligue 1 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Lille host Le Havre in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 10 October 2026. The bookmakers make Lille clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 21% and Le Havre at 14%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lille -1.25 at 1.98, Le Havre at 1.93. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.96, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Le Havre create more: 1.70 expected goals a match against 1.26 for Lille.
- Lille give away less, 1.69 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Lille 12.8 (6.4 on target), Le Havre 15.4 (5.0 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Lille 45.9%, Le Havre 55.5%.
| Lille | Per match | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| 1.69 | xG conceded | 1.75 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 0.80 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 15.4 |
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 45.9 | Pressure share % | 55.5 |
| 13.8 | Tackles | 18.4 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 14.8 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lille won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Lille | 1 – 1 | Le Havre |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Le Havre | 0 – 1 | Lille |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Lille | 1 – 2 | Le Havre |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Le Havre | 0 – 3 | Lille |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Lyon Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers Sunday 11 October 2026
- Lorient vs Paris FC Sunday 11 October 2026
- AS Monaco vs Toulouse Sunday 11 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Sunday 11 October 2026
- Nice vs Strasbourg Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.