Lorient vs Paris FC: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Lorient host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October 2026. The prices see little between them: Lorient 32%, the draw 28%, Paris FC 40% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lorient +0.25 at 1.86, Paris FC at 2.04. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Form in numbers
- Paris FC create more: 1.69 expected goals a match against 1.16 for Lorient.
- Paris FC give away less, 0.85 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Lorient 10.4 (3.2 on target), Paris FC 13.2 (4.6 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Lorient 39.9%, Paris FC 49.8%.
| Lorient | Per match | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.69 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 0.85 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.60 |
| 10.4 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 3.2 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 39.9 | Pressure share % | 49.8 |
| 15.4 | Tackles | 20.0 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Lorient won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Lorient | 1 – 1 | Paris FC |
| 3 Oct 2025 | Paris FC | 2 – 0 | Lorient |
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Lyon Saturday 10 October 2026
- Lille vs Le Havre Saturday 10 October 2026
- Brest vs Angers Sunday 11 October 2026
- AS Monaco vs Toulouse Sunday 11 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans Sunday 11 October 2026
- Nice vs Strasbourg Sunday 11 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.