Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: Prediction, Odds and Preview
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-07
Paris Saint Germain host Le Mans in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October 2026. The bookmakers make Paris Saint Germain clear favourites at 82%, with the draw at 11% and Le Mans at 7%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Paris Saint Germain -2.75 at 2.06, Le Mans at 1.84. The main goals line is 4: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Paris Saint Germain create more: 2.13 expected goals a match against 1.67 for Le Mans.
- Paris Saint Germain give away less, 1.02 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Paris Saint Germain 21.2 (7.2 on target), Le Mans 10.4 (5.0 on target).
- Share of the pressure in their matches (Sportmonks Pressure Index): Paris Saint Germain 76.7%, Le Mans 34.2%.
| Paris Saint Germain | Per match | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.67 |
| 1.02 | xG conceded | 1.76 |
| 1.60 | Goals | 1.80 |
| 21.2 | Shots | 10.4 |
| 7.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.6 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 76.7 | Pressure share % | 34.2 |
| 16.0 | Tackles | 16.2 |
| 6.4 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans in the Match Centre Follow it live
More Ligue 1 previews
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.