Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham · updated 2026-10-09
Aston Villa host Fenerbahçe in the Champions League on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Villa Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Fenerbahçe favourites at 56%, puts the draw at 27% and expects about 2.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Aston Villa 0.75, Fenerbahçe 1.57.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 43%.
- Most likely score: 0–1 (15%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley, 32 · Aston Villa · CMF · Box-to-box midfielder
Moneyball Scout picks Ross Barkley as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 63, defensive 53).
- Successful dribbles: 1.16 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of central midfielders
- Passes: 59.04 per 90 minutes, better than 78% of central midfielders
- Pass accuracy: 91%, better than 75% of central midfielders
Fenerbahçe score 1.3 goals a match this season from 1.76 expected: stopping them runs through Ross Barkley.
Scout's notes: Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Aston Villa | Per match this season | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.6 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 |
| 1.77 | xG conceded | – |
| 9.6 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 2.4 | On target | 5.9 |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 55.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Aston Villa in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki goalkeeper · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
- Emiliano Buendía midfielder · rating 6.86 · 5 apps
- Boubacar Kamara midfielder · rating 6.86 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.