Aston Villa vs Viking: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Champions League · Wednesday 21 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham · updated 2026-10-09
Aston Villa host Viking in the Champions League on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at Villa Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Viking slight favourites at 40%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 3.0 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Aston Villa 1.43, Viking 1.55.
- Over 2.5 goals: 57% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (5 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley, 32 · Aston Villa · CMF · Box-to-box midfielder
Moneyball Scout picks Ross Barkley as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 63, defensive 53).
- Successful dribbles: 1.16 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of central midfielders
- Passes: 59.04 per 90 minutes, better than 78% of central midfielders
- Pass accuracy: 91%, better than 75% of central midfielders
Viking score 2.0 goals a match this season from 1.14 expected: stopping them runs through Ross Barkley.
Scout's notes: Dribbler.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Aston Villa | Per match this season | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 0.93 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| 1.77 | xG conceded | – |
| 9.6 | Shots | 9.3 |
| 2.4 | On target | 4.7 |
| 46.0 | Possession % | 38.3 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks; Aston Villa in its domestic league.
Players to watch
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki goalkeeper · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
- Emiliano Buendía midfielder · rating 6.86 · 5 apps
- Boubacar Kamara midfielder · rating 6.86 · 5 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
- Sabah vs Slavia Praha Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Lens vs Sporting CP Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Galatasaray vs FC Barcelona Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Manchester United Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Arsenal vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Viking vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Inter vs Club Brugge Tuesday 13 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Napoli Tuesday 13 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.